World Cup 2026: Our Bets for Matchday 1

The big favourites are going off at insulting prices. France, Mexico, Argentina, everyone's piling on to grind out crumbs. The real bag on Matchday 1 is somewhere else.

The World Cup kicks off Thursday, June 11. The trap is wanting to bet every game. Even some random Haiti-Scotland matchup, you wanna smash $10 on it. We've been there: don't rein it in and your roll's cooked before the weekend.

So we did the work. Hours on all 24 Matchday 1 games, hundreds of data points across projected lineups, injuries and form. We landed on four bets: three solid ones and a longshot. Nothing pulled out of a hat.

Mexico - South Africa: forget the straight win

Thursday June 11, 3 PM ET, the Azteca. 87,000 fans, 7,300 feet of altitude, a Mexico side that wants this one. No argument there. The problem is the price: the straight win is 1.40. It's fine, but the value's somewhere else.

The real question is goals. And there are two reasons to expect a low count.

One, World Cup openers are locked down. Nobody wants to blow it on night one.

Two, South Africa came to defend, not to trade goals. 19 of their 26 players suit up in their home league, no World Cup since 2010, and an attack that barely shows up.

Likely script: Giménez bags one, Mexico controls it, low score the rest of the way.

Our bet: Mexico to win and under 3.5 goals, at 1.88. You flip a short win that pays crumbs into a price actually worth playing, on the most likely script. Not sexy, but it hits.

Confidence: ●●●○○ (3/5).

France - Senegal: the obvious bet is a no

Tuesday June 16, 3 PM ET, MetLife Stadium, where the final goes down. Everyone's tapping "France win", and on paper, fair enough. But careful: back in 2002, Senegal beat the reigning world champs, France, in the opener.

This is a real team, not an easy out. Mané's probably playing his last World Cup and he's showing up with something to prove, Idrissa Gueye covers a stupid amount of ground in midfield, and Jackson can punish you any second.

But two things cut against them. Up top, they're a level below France. And at the back, they're banged up: Koulibaly, the leader of the defence, hasn't played since April after a thigh injury. Not at full speed against Deschamps' side, the Al-Hilal man is getting cooked by Mbappé's pace.

Our bet: Mbappé to score, at 2.00. Top scorer in La Liga and the Champions League this season, runaway Golden Boot favourite, with Dembélé and Olise feeding him. If one thing's hitting in this game, it's Mbappé finding the net.

Confidence: ●●●○○ (3/5).

Iraq - Norway: the most comfortable bet of the night

Tuesday June 16, prime time ET. Norway are back at a World Cup for the first time since 1998, and they brought a goal machine.

The numbers, brace yourself. 55 goals in 48 caps for Erling Haaland, more than one a game, 16 in qualifying alone. Nobody on the planet runs at that rate.

Iraq are parking the bus. Except that just means Norway camping in their box for 90 minutes and Haaland eating all night. Norway are better than 75% to win. This one's looking one-way.

Our bet: Haaland to score, at 1.40. We could've gone for the brace to juice the price, but two goals against a parked bus is dicier. We're keeping it to the single.

Confidence: ●●●●○ (4/5), our most solid bet of the matchday.

Brazil - Morocco: the weekend longshot

Saturday June 13, prime time ET. This one you play small, just for the thrill. Brazil face Morocco, sitting as underdogs around 5.40.

Except this Brazil doesn't scare anyone anymore. Fifth in their qualifying group, six losses in eighteen games. Rodrygo out for the tournament, Neymar coming off two years of injury hell.

Morocco are the opposite. 2022 semifinalists, a defence that gives up less than a goal every three games, nine regulars still around from that run. Hakimi bombing forward, Bounou saving everything, and an Ancelotti still struggling to settle a shaky Seleção.

At 5.40, the market gives Morocco barely a one-in-five shot. Given the state of Brazil, that's harsh, and that's the opening. Morocco sitting deep, Hakimi springing counters, Brazil getting frustrated: that's exactly how they bounced Spain and Portugal in 2022.

Our longshot: Morocco to win, at 5.40. Small stake, and the price you'll be sick about if it hits without you.

Confidence: ●●○○○ (2/5). A swing, not a sure thing.

Our card, quick version

A few habits before you place your first ticket

Set a bankroll for the whole World Cup. Never more than 1 or 2% on a single bet. Six weeks is a long haul, and a sloppy roll burns fast.

Skip the eight-leg parlay you cook up Friday night with the boys. Fun for two minutes, never cashes.

Watch the 1.30 favourites. Looks like free money, but one upset wipes ten winning tickets.

And no tilt bets. After a game that ticked you off, put the phone down and come back tomorrow.

Got your bet? Head to CrazyBet, place your ticket and enjoy the game. New here? There's a sports welcome bonus to get you started, plus sports promos running all tournament long.

Legal betting age only. Play for fun, never to chase losses.